How X ranks a post in 2026
X does not broadcast to your followers. Each post is a test: did this earn the next circle of viewers? Follower count is a weak prior. That is why a 200-follower account can outrun a 20k account on a Tuesday, and why six months of posting into silence is usually a reply-and-profile problem, not a luck problem.
The model, in one paragraph
Phoenix (For You, open-sourced 13 Aug 2026) predicts ~19 actions a viewer might take. Each action has a weight. The score is the weighted sum. You do not need the paper. You need the shape of the weights, because the shape tells you what to write.
| Action | Public weight | In likes | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copy-link share | 20.0 | ×40 | Off-platform send. Rare. Expensive to fake. |
| Author replies to a mutual | 20.0 | ×40 | Answer useful comments fast. |
| Reply / quote / DM share | 5.0 | ×10 | Conversation is the growth surface under 1k. |
| Follow from the post | 4.0 | ×8 | The profile has to close. Chapter 3. |
| Like | 0.5 | ×1 | A polite nod. Do not optimize for this. |
| Report | −234 | kills it | Rage-bait is a trap. |
Weights will move. Treat this table as a snapshot of one public release, and check the open-sourced repository before you quote a number in your own posts. Do not quote the 2023 table (reply = 13.5) as current law. The shape has held across versions: conversation, profile actions and off-platform shares beat hearts. Build your habits on the shape, not on the decimals.
Two circles
Circle one is people who already talk to you. If they reply or the author replies back, the post is allowed to leave the room.
Circle two is strangers the model is willing to test. They only show up if circle one produced a score. Beginners try to skip to circle two with a banger. The banger never leaves the room.
Your friend graph is a ranking input
This is the 2026 point Hallam repeats most. An account with 2,000 followers that never talks to the same 30 people launches each post with the physics of a zero-follower account. Early replies from people the ranker already clusters with you change the test. Premium helps a little. It does not replace the graph. Under 1,000, your job is to build 20 to 40 of those cluster-friends, not to write one perfect hook a week.
What this changes about your Tuesday
- Write so a specific person can answer. “Thoughts?” is not a reason.
- Sit with the post for 30–40 minutes after you hit send.
- Answer every useful comment as if it were a second post.
- Ignore vanity likes. Log profile visits and unprompted replies.
Open your last 10 posts. Write likes vs replies that were not yours. Circle high-like / zero-reply posts. Rewrite one last line so it forces a specific answer.